See BBC report and related links
See also: Victor Cha, “China’s Newest Province?,” New York Times, Dec. 20, 2011
UPDATE — Dec. 21, 2011 – There are indications that ruling power in North Korea post-Kim Jong-il will be shared – See report from Reuters.
Yan Xuetong, a political scientist at Tsinghua University and author of Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, says moral compass, not brute force or threats to use it, determines which nations rise to the top. Excerpt:
“According to the ancient Chinese philosopher Xunzi, there were three types of leadership: humane authority, hegemony and tyranny. Humane authority won the hearts and minds of the people at home and abroad. Tyranny — based on military force — inevitably created enemies. Hegemonic powers lay in between: they did not cheat the people at home or cheat allies abroad. But they were frequently indifferent to moral concerns and often used violence against non-allies. The philosophers generally agreed that humane authority would win in any competition with hegemony or tyranny…
China’s quest to enhance its world leadership status and America’s effort to maintain its present position is a zero-sum game. It is the battle for people’s hearts and minds that will determine who eventually prevails. And, as China’s ancient philosophers predicted, the country that displays more humane authority will win.”
Yan Xuetong, “How China Can Defeat America,” New York Times Op-Ed Piece, Nov. 21, 2011
Jackie Calmes, “A Marine Base for Australia Irritates China,” New York Times, Nov.17, 2011
For context, see Robert D. Kaplan, “The Geography of Chinese Power,” Foreign Affairs, June, 2010
The Economist (June 25th, 2011) is running a “Special Report” on China. Excerpts:
1. “The government has been reviving a Maoist system of neighbourhood surveillance by civilian volunteers. In the past few months the police have launched an all-out assault on civil society, arresting dozens of lawyers, NGO activists, bloggers and even artists. The Arab revolutions have spooked the leadership. From its perspective, the system looks vulnerable.”
2. “Late next year, probably in October, the party will hold a national congress, the 18th since its founding 90 years ago. This meeting, a smaller one of the party’s central committee immediately afterwards and a session of the legislature in March 2013 will endorse the biggest shuffle in China’s leadership for a decade. The president, Hu Jintao, and Mr Wen will step down from the pinnacle of power, the nine-member standing committee of the Politburo. A younger generation will begin to take over.”
3. “China’s demographic advantage—an abundant supply of labour in the countryside—is beginning to wane. In a few years the working-age population will peak. Without huge and politically risky policy changes it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the rapid rate of urbanisation that has been one of the main drivers of growth.”
4. “China’s leaders will find it enormously difficult to rebalance China’s economy so that growth is led by consumption rather than by exports and investment. Their efforts will be hampered by the growing clout of state-owned businesses.”
5. “China is likely to disappoint those who believed that the country’s embrace of globalisation would usher in greater political freedoms over the next few years.”
6. “For all its problems, China in the coming 10-15 years is still likely to reach several symbolic milestones. The IMF predicts that in 2016 it will become the world’s largest economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis.”
7. “Despite Mr Wen’s calls for more evenly shared prosperity, the gap between rich and poor and between cities and countryside has continued to widen. Since he took office in 2003, absolute poverty has dropped markedly. But the number of people in relative poverty (with 50% or less of the median income) grew from 12.2% of the population to 14.6% between 2002 and 2007, according to research by Terry Sicular of the University of Western Ontario and Li Shi and Luo Chuliang of Beijing Normal University.”
8. “Among the bears is Michael Pettis of Peking University, who believes that investments are becoming increasingly inefficient and that China is heading towards a “brick wall” of government debt. Growth, he says, will remain high in the early half of the decade but could drop off sharply thereafter as loans turn sour. Even in the best case, he says, growth will fall below 5%.”
The tragic earthquake, tsunami, and resulting nuclear disaster in Japan have prompted one student of Japanese history to look back to the “Great Kanto Earthquake” that struck Yokohama and Tokyo on September 1, 1923:
“Though they may dispute its effects, historians agree that the destruction of two great population centers gave voice to those in Japan who believed that the embrace of Western decadence had invited divine retribution. Or, as philosopher and social critic Fukasaku Yasubimi declared at the time, ‘God cracked down a great hammer’ on the Japanese nation.”
Joshua Hammer, “Aftershocks,” The Smithsonian, May, 2011, pp. 50-53
U.S. officials say that China’s navy has been less “aggresive” so far in 2011.
In response to China’s military build-up Japan has announced it will sharpen its own military profile in the region. And, on the eve of South Korean military exercises, the Korean Peninsula has grown very anxious:
Two Stories:
India doesn’t like China’s assertiveness in southeast Asia and its friendship with India’s enemy Pakistan, and, China doesn’t like India’s support of Tibetan separatists and its friendship with the U.S. In addition, tensions are rising again along the disputed 4,000 km border between the two countries.
The Economist, “Wen in Delhi: Do as the Dilli-Wallahs Do,” Dec. 15, 2010
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